Phnom Penh — On Wednesday the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that Cambodia’s economy is likely to slow down, projecting growth of 4.8 % in 2025 and 4.0 % in 2026. The forecast highlights instability in exports, falling remittances, a downturn in tourism and a weak domestic market. While the country managed a 6 % growth rate in 2024, a mix of shocks—trade disruptions, border tensions and sluggish credit expansion—has laid bare its economic fragilities, with early signs of another slowdown appearing in the second half of 2025, the IMF noted.
The agency said, “The downward revision reflects remittance losses and a tourism slowdown, which are expected to weigh on domestic demand,” adding that “Tariff effects will lower export earnings as manufacturers face margin pressures.” A U.S. tariff of 19 % on all goods entering Cambodia, imposed on August 1, also pressures the economy.
The IMF’s release stressed that careful fiscal and monetary management, alongside structural reforms, are key to maintaining stability and building resilience. It urged short‑term actions to shield the economy from external shocks while establishing a foundation for medium‑term competitiveness. Inflation is expected to tick up modestly in 2025 before easing in 2026.
Earlier this week the Asian Development Bank (ADB) approved a policy‑based loan of US $50 million to bolster Cambodia’s financial sector and digital infrastructure. ADB will target both banking and non‑banking institutions, as well as digital‑finance platforms and sustainable‑finance capabilities. “Through this investment, ADB supports the country in boosting its financial sector, laying the foundation for resilient growth, expanding financial inclusion, and unlocking private‑sector potential,” said Anthony Gill, ADB’s acting country director for Cambodia.
Although the financial sector has made noticeable strides, the release added that it still needs further development to unlock full potential. The first phase of the investment program will hone the regulatory environment, strengthen financial stability and market depth, enhance consumer protection, and develop strategic plans for fintech, regulatory frameworks for digital assets and cryptocurrencies, as well as peer‑to‑peer lending.
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