A new US government rule is shaking things up for H-1B visas, but experts say it won’t hit India’s big IT companies too hard. The order blocks entry for new H-1B visa applicants unless employers cough up a hefty one-time fee of $100,000. According to a fresh report from fund manager Equirus, large and mid-sized Indian IT services firms can dodge major damage by ramping up local hires, using subcontractors, or shifting work offshore.
This H-1B visa restriction kicks in for 12 months starting September 21, 2025, and won’t extend to existing visa holders already in the US unless renewed. It targets only fresh applications, giving companies some breathing room.
Equirus crunched the numbers and found the fee might trim operating profits for top Indian IT giants by just 7 to 14 basis points if it sticks to new H-1B visas. If the rule expands to cover existing workers outside the US, that could rise to 26 to 49 basis points. For mid-cap players, the hit looks steeper—21 to 39 basis points for new applicants, or up to 60 to 109 basis points in a broader scenario.
Over the last six to eight years, Indian IT vendors have already cut back on on-site H-1B staff. These visas make up about 25-35% of the workforce for major firms and 30-60% for smaller ones. Plus, that $100,000 fee often tops the salary these workers earn from Indian companies, making it a no-brainer to pivot.
“We think common sense will win out,” the Equirus report notes. “Companies can simply hire more locals or green card holders, bring in subcontractors, or move jobs back home through offshoring.” Still, the firm warns that sales growth could slow a bit in the second half of fiscal 2026 as firms adjust plans and get client buy-in.
India dominates the H-1B scene, with about 71% of holders hailing from there. They mostly staff tech powerhouses like Infosys, Wipro, Cognizant, and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), keeping US projects humming. As these firms adapt to the US visa changes, watch for smarter strategies to keep the talent pipeline flowing.
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