US-India Ties: Why Tariffs Could Push New Delhi Towards China and Russia
The United States sees India as a key player in its Indo-Pacific strategy. Washington views India as a strong democracy, a vital counter to China’s growing influence, and a crucial bridge to the Global South. But here’s the catch: the US’s own tariff policies might be undermining these goals, according to a recent report in The National Interest.
Instead of using pressure tactics, the US should focus on making partnerships with India more appealing, the report suggests. "Don’t expect India to fully side with the West," it says. "Aim to make the US the top choice when India balances its relationships. Offer incentives, not punishments. Remember, India will team up with countries like Europe, Japan, and the Global South at the same time. The US doesn’t need exclusivity—just make your partnership the best deal."
Punitive tariffs won’t change India’s energy decisions or end the Ukraine war faster. In fact, they could damage one of America’s most important alliances. This might drive New Delhi closer to Moscow and Beijing, which goes against everything the US Indo-Pacific strategy stands for.
To keep its global leadership strong, the US must avoid pushing India away. Build deeper ties through energy deals, tech collaborations, trade pacts, and mutual respect. The report stresses: "Punishment weakens bonds; partnership builds them."
India’s heavy reliance on Russian oil isn’t about defying the US—it’s about economic survival. Discounted Russian crude makes up over a third of India’s oil imports. This saves billions of dollars each year, keeping fuel prices low for 1.4 billion people. Cutting it off suddenly could hit India with an $11 billion loss, which no government in New Delhi can afford.
The US now faces a big decision. Stick with tariffs and coercion, hoping to force India’s hand? Or drop that approach and create lasting agreements that benefit both sides? The report warns that alienating India at this critical time—when global powers are realigning—could backfire badly.
Choosing tariffs risks sending India into the arms of China and Russia. That would make ending the Ukraine conflict harder and shake up the Indo-Pacific region. On the flip side, embracing partnership would boost US leadership, steady the world order, and promote democracy and growth together.
As tensions rise in the Indo-Pacific and US-India relations evolve, experts say Washington needs to prioritize smart diplomacy over short-term penalties to secure a stronger alliance.
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