India’s wholesale price index (WPI) slipped into negative territory in October, falling 1.21 percent from the previous month. The drop, driven by lower prices for food, fuel, and manufactured goods, shows a brief period of deflation in the country’s core inflation gauge.
Industry experts say the WPI will likely stay in a tight range next month. Dr. Ranjeet Mehta, CEO and Secretary‑General of the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, explained that calm global oil markets, ample food‑grain stocks, and a strong Kharif harvest are keeping price pressures low. “We expect WPI inflation to remain range‑bound because of benign international crude oil prices, comfortable buffer stocks of food‑grains, and a healthy Kharif harvest,” he said.
Bank of Baroda’s forecast adds that global commodity and oil prices could rise a bit if U.S. demand picks up after the federal government’s recent reopening. The bank warned that higher global supply might push oil prices down, but any increase could feed into higher fuel inflation later.
WPI inflation stayed modest at 0.1 percent in September and posted a 2.8 percent rise in October 2024. The October decline was mainly due to falling prices of food items, crude petroleum, natural gas, electricity, mineral oils, and basic metals. Core WPI inflation—excluding food, fuel, and power—rose to 1.5 percent from 0.3 percent a year earlier, largely because basic metal and aluminium prices climbed even as computers, motor vehicles and some food categories eased, possibly after GST rate cuts.
According to Bank of Baroda, core inflation also edged up to 1.5 percent in October from 0.3 percent in the previous year, with food items like vegetables, fruits, and spices pulling the index down, while protein (eggs, meat, fish) and milk prices climbed.
In short, India’s wholesale inflation remains near its target range, buoyed by low crude oil costs and healthy food‑grain supplies, but eyes on the next month’s data will keep investors and policymakers on alert.
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