New Delhi, Feb 6 (LatestNewsX) The split was inevitable following the West Bengal Pradesh Congress leadership’s loud silence over the Communist Party of India (Marxist) state chief’s repeated overtures at another unity before the upcoming Assembly polls.
It also underscores again the attempt of an Opposition alliance as unfeasible, grandly proclaimed less than three years ago as the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc.
West Bengal will thus witness a multi-cornered contest, granting the state’s principal Opposition BJP a perceived advantage.
Poll outcomes in 80-90 Assembly seats can be influenced by Muslim voters in the state, while they clearly play a decisive role in 40-50 constituencies.
This demographic advantage significantly influences the political landscape of the state which many parties seek to use.
This section of voters has been supporting the state’s ruling Trinamool Congress with Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee having initiated a number of welfare schemes for the community.
However, her recent turn towards what is being termed as “soft Hindutva” may lead to a fracture in minority votes. Her recent spree in inaugurating state-sponsored high-profile temples and offering liberal government-funded donations to Durga Puja organisers in the state are being considered an attempt at wooing the majority community away from BJP.
This time, a number of political parties are expected to throw their hats in the ring in the upcoming election, overtly exhibiting an overreach based on religion.
Humayun Kabir, a former MLA from the Trinamool, and builder of a multi-crore replica of the Babri Masjid, has launched the Janata Unnayan Party (JUP), intending to be the kingmaker following the Assembly poll results.
While CM Mamata Banerjee’s recent moves may put her at unease with her traditional vote bank, an apparent Muslim consolidation behind Humayun Kabir may help in a post-poll tie-up – if required.
Also present is the Indian Secular Front (ISF), founded by the Furfura Sharif sufi shrine’s cleric Peerzada Abbas Siddiqui ahead of 2021 Assembly elections that contested in alliance with the Congress-Left. It is again in the fray with an objective to ensure “social justice” for Muslims and Dalits in the state.
From Hyderabad, preparing to test Bengal’s political waters is Asaduddin Owaisi, after the AIMIM tasted success in Bihar’s Muslim-dominated constituencies last year.
Kabir is intent at a possible tie-up of the Islamic parties to strengthen its post-poll bargaining powers. Meanwhile, an Opposition split was imminent when Congress state party President Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury was replaced with Subhankar Sarkar.
While the former is seen as a Mamata Banerjee baiter, the incumbent is considered malleable. The Congress finally broke its alliance with the Left Front and ISF with a large section within it feeling the tie-up had weakened the party.
Past electoral results showed no gains, and when approached, the Trinamool Congress had offered only token seat-sharing.
A series of developments and signals since 2025 made the split inevitable, culminating in the decision to contest all 294 seats independently. Among these was CPI(M) state secretary Md. Salim’s recent meeting with Humayun Kabir.
Chowdhury, who represented West Bengal’s Baharampur constituency five consecutive times, was the Leader of Congress party in the 17th Lok Sabha. But he subsequently lost to Trinamool’s Yusuf Pathan in the 2024 Parliamentary election.
A section in the state Congress is said to be pitching his name as their chief ministerial candidate, though it is uncertain how many seats the party can wrest on its own.
Though Chowdhury appears reluctant without an official seal, he may contest for an Assembly constituency, preferably in Murshidabad district.
In the 2021 Assembly election the Congress-Left alliance failed to win a single seat in the 294-member state Assembly, while the junior partner, ISF, won only one seat.
Overall, the INDIA bloc, comprising 28 major Opposition parties including Congress, CPI(M), DMK, the Trinamool, Aam Aadmi Party, Shiv Sena (UBT), and RJD, is slowly disintegrating after facing a series of losses since the 2024 Lok Sabha elections – followed by drubbings in states like Maharashtra and Bihar.
However, how far the BJP will be able to exploit the political advantage in West Bengal remains to be seen in the absence of a single, strong regional leader and a cohesive state party unit.
jb/rad
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