Does the thaw in India-China ties signal a ‘new order’ in Asian geopolitics (IANS Analysis)
Recently, India and China are taking small but important steps to improve their long-strained relationship. After nearly five years of mistrust and tension, signs of a possible thaw are emerging, offering hope for better cooperation between these two Asian giants.
The conflict at Galwan Valley in 2020 marked a turning point. It wasn’t just a military clash but also broke years of diplomatic trust, leading to halted talks, disrupted trade, and fewer people-to-people connections. Since then, their ties remained tense and guarded.
But in 2025, both countries seem ready to test a new approach. The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin played a key role in this process. For the first time in seven years, India’s Prime Minister Modi visited China, met President Xi Jinping, and held discussions with top Chinese leaders. While the meeting was cautious, it signaled a willingness to explore cooperation beyond their differences.
During the summit, President Xi emphasized the importance of a multipolar world where no single country dominates. Prime Minister Modi highlighted the need for regional stability, better connectivity, and respect for each other’s sovereignty. Sitting together on a global stage showed both nations are open to dialogue without surrendering their core interests.
One of the biggest steps towards normalcy is the plan to restart direct flights between India and China. These flights, halted after the border clashes, are crucial for students, business travelers, and families. Restoring air links will boost tourism and trade, benefiting airlines and communities on both sides. India is careful to negotiate a fresh Air Services Agreement to ensure national security while reopening these routes, indicating a balanced approach to engagement.
Cultural exchanges are also making a comeback. The Kailash-Mansarovar pilgrimage, suspended for several years, is set to resume in 2025. For thousands of Indian pilgrims, this spiritual journey is very meaningful. Reopening this route is a gesture of good faith and social connection, helping to rebuild trust through cultural ties. Additionally, easing visa rules for Chinese visitors and revitalizing academic and media exchanges show efforts to reconnect societies beyond politics.
However, experts warn that this thaw is fragile. Border patrols remain cautious, and military disengagement at certain hotspots is incomplete. India still worries about its trade deficit with China, restrictions on Chinese investments, and concerns about China’s close ties with Pakistan and activities in the Indo-Pacific region. These issues show that deep-rooted distrust still exists and cannot be fixed overnight.
Despite the challenges, both nations recognize the importance of cooperation. India and China are key players in the global economy and share interests in energy, climate change, and regional stability. Even with political differences, trade continues to grow, showing that economic pragmatism persists. The decision to restore flights and ease people movement reflects this understanding—that complete separation isn’t practical or desirable.
At the SCO summit, both countries engaged in discussions on counterterrorism, infrastructure, and financial cooperation. While China promoted its yuan-based aid and South-South cooperation, India cautiously participated, testing cooperation without losing strategic independence. Indian leaders also held meaningful meetings alongside the main summit, emphasizing a path of incremental progress.
Rebuilding people-to-people links remains vital. Before the Galwan conflict, exchanges in education, tourism, and cultural events helped create familiarity and soften perceptions. Their suspension increased negative views and suspicion. Restoring flights, pilgrimage routes, academic connections, and media collaborations can gradually change narratives, humanizing each other and reducing hostility.
There is a regional aspect too. South Asia’s security and development depend on peaceful relations between India and China. Temporary cooperation on issues like river management, disaster response, and health crises could bring regional benefits. Recognizing their mutual dependence is essential for maintaining stability in this strategically vital part of the world.
For a real breakthrough, both countries need to keep working step by step, balancing cooperation with their complex disputes. They must accept that strategic competition will continue but shouldn’t interfere with every aspect of their relationship. Leaders also need to persuade their citizens that engagement is in their national interest, even when it involves difficult compromises.
In the end, the small symbolic acts—the return of pilgrims, students going to university, flights resuming—may seem modest. But these steps build a foundation for lasting peace. Confidence between societies is key because no grand strategy can succeed without public trust.
In summary, India and China are cautiously re-humanizing their relationship. Though they may never become close friends, learning to coexist and cooperate pragmatically can lead to greater stability. If they nurture this fragile progress carefully, it might mark the start of a new chapter—one based on mutual understanding and shared interests in a complex world.
