Manhattan’s luxury housing market is standing out as a winner this year, bucking a nationwide slump that’s hitting high-end homes hard. While cities like Dallas and Miami face tough times, sales of the priciest apartments and condos in the Big Apple jumped 13.6% in the third quarter compared to last year. Prices climbed too, with the median sale hitting over $5.9 million, even as fewer homes hit the market.
Across the US, things look different. Luxury sales—those in the top 5% of the market—dipped 0.7% in the three months ending August 31, according to Redfin data. That’s the weakest summer performance since 2013. “The luxury market seems weaker than the rest of the housing market right now—and that’s already pretty weak,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research, in comments to the Wall Street Journal.
Buyers in places like San Francisco are holding back amid economic ups and downs, unwilling to pay the sky-high premiums from the pandemic boom. But in Manhattan, demand stays hot. New figures from Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman show inventory shrank 16.1% as shoppers grabbed up available listings. “Sales in the Manhattan luxury housing market grew 64% faster than the overall market over the past year,” noted Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel and author of Elliman’s reports. Deals over $4 million rose 20.8%, outpacing lower-end sales at 12.7%.
Cash rules everything in this segment. More than 90% of Manhattan deals above $3 million closed without a mortgage, shielding buyers from today’s high interest rates. This trend raises eyebrows about whether the city’s ultra-wealthy are snapping up properties to hedge against change. With New York City’s mayoral election just weeks away, some wonder if a win by progressive candidate Zohran Mamdani could prompt an exodus.
Still, experts downplay politics as a big driver. “If you have $3 million in disposable cash for a home, you’re probably not basing decisions on who’s mayor,” said Keyan Sanai, a Douglas Elliman agent. “At that wealth level, market conditions matter more.”
That said, September brought a reality check. Luxury contract signings dropped nearly 40% from last year, with just 70 homes going under agreement, per Olshan Realty. Big-ticket spots like 111 W. 57th St. and 70 Vestry finally sold, but some units hung around for years and fetched deep discounts. “Overall, the luxury market is stable,” said Donna Olshan, president of Olshan Realty. “There’s nothing I can pinpoint yet.” Miller agreed, adding, “I can’t explain the variation in September results.”
This pause could signal trouble if it lingers into fall. Manhattan’s surge draws from fat Wall Street bonuses and booming stocks. But if buyers get jittery—especially with the mayoral race stirring political uncertainty—the city’s luxury real estate resilience might fade heading into winter. For now, though, NYC’s high-end scene remains a rare bright spot in a cooling national market.
Source: New York Post
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