India Watches Closely as Nepal’s Political Turmoil Unfolds
New Delhi is keeping a sharp eye on Nepal after violent protests forced Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli to step down on Monday. Young "Gen Z" protesters hit the streets, sparking chaos that led to this sudden change. With unrest shaking up India’s neighborhood yet again, experts warn that India must stay alert to protect its borders and interests.
Kulbir Krishan, a former member of India’s National Security Advisory Board, points out the pattern. "We’ve seen regime changes in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and now Nepal—all right next door," he says. In Sri Lanka back in 2022, public fury against President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his family boiled over into massive protests, forcing him out on July 22. Nepal’s crisis feels similar—fueled by years of frustration over corruption, favoritism, and poor governance.
Bangladesh stands out a bit differently. Last year, protests toppled the elected government of Sheikh Hasina, leading to an interim setup in Dhaka. Krishan notes that doubts over the election’s fairness played a big role, and some suspect foreign involvement there. "In Sri Lanka, it looks purely homegrown," he adds. "For Nepal, it’s too soon to tell if outsiders are pulling strings."
Samir Kumar Mitra, a retired Deputy Inspector General of India’s Border Security Force, calls this a "critical moment." He urges caution: "We hope things don’t get worse, but India should gear up for any surprises—without making the situation explode." India shares a 1,750-km open border with Nepal, so they’ve ramped up security. Still, uncertainty hangs in the air as Nepal appoints an interim prime minister and gears up for elections to steady the ship.
A stable Nepal matters a lot for India’s Himalayan border security and sway in the region. China is likely to step in and influence Kathmandu, so New Delhi needs smart diplomacy to keep things balanced. Krishan stresses proactive steps: "India’s security calls for top vigilance. Our leaders are handling this carefully, without meddling in Nepal or Bangladesh’s internal matters."
This Nepal unrest echoes Bangladesh’s uprising last year and Sri Lanka’s 2022 crisis, where public anger toppled governments across South Asia. To the west, Pakistan’s instability and hostility add to the worries. Then there’s Myanmar’s endless troubles and the Maldives leaning toward China—none of it spells good news for India. Experts like retired Group Captain R.K. Das say a calm neighborhood is key. "During neighborly turmoil, we must tighten border security," he warns. "Opportunists might try smuggling arms or infiltrating, stirring up more chaos."
India has stuck to its "Neighbourhood First" policy for years—lending a hand while respecting other countries’ independence. In times like these, New Delhi keeps a close watch on developments, steps in with diplomacy when needed, and shields its strategic goals. But this latest crisis could shake up alliances in the subcontinent, bringing fresh security and political headaches down the line. As things evolve, India stays ready to navigate the shifts.
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