Complex fertiliser volume to grow 2-4 pc amid geopolitical issues: Report
New Delhi, Oct 9 – India’s complex fertilizer market is set to grow a modest 2‑4 % this fiscal year (FY26), according to a report from Crisil Ratings. That follows a strong 9 % jump in 2025, when the sector saw big gains despite import shortages, geopolitical tensions and a high comparison base.
### Stable credit outlook
Crisil says that fertilizer makers will keep solid credit ratings. The steady profit margins, coupled with the government’s planned subsidy package and timely payments, will hold down the working‑capital needs of the industry. However, analysts warn that spikes in raw‑material costs, especially from supply disruptions, could raise subsidy demands.
### Import‑heavy DAP and local NPK
India uses 60 % of its di‑ammonium phosphate (DAP) from overseas, and supply constraints have hit that segment hard. By contrast, nitrogen‑phosphorus‑potassium (NPK) fertilizers are largely produced domestically. In the previous year, DAP sales fell about 12 %, while NPK rose nearly 28 % as growers turned to the cheaper local product.
### Forecasts for this fiscal year
The ratings agency projects NPK volumes to rise 4‑6 % thanks to a good monsoon season. DAP volumes are expected to stay flat, with high prices keeping growth in check, but supply is likely to improve. Government measures—such as special DAP import compensation and new long‑term deals with Saudi Arabia—along with easing trade frictions with China, are expected to lift DAP availability.
“Once DAP supply steadies, we anticipate NPK demand will normalise,” said Anand Kulkarni, Director at Crisil Ratings.
### What this means for farmers
With a one‑third share of India’s total fertilizer use, complex fertilizers—especially NPK—play a crucial role in meeting the country’s agricultural needs. The steady growth forecast suggests that farmers will have continued access to these essential inputs, while improved import arrangements should reduce price volatility.
Overall, the outlook for India’s fertilizer market remains positive, and the government’s subsidy support is set to keep the industry’s financial footing strong.
Source: ianslive
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