India is poised to remain the world’s fastest‑growing major economy, with the OECD estimating a 6.7 % surge in 2025‑26. That boost will come from stronger private consumption and an uptick in the government’s infrastructure spending. “India’s real GDP is projected to grow by 6.7 per cent in fiscal year 2025‑26, 6.2 per cent in 2026‑27 and 6.4 per cent in 2027‑28. Higher tariffs applied by the United States are expected to weigh on exports, but private consumption will be supported by rising real incomes as inflation remains low and consumption taxes decline,” the report added. Falling borrowing costs and solid public capital outlays should keep investment robust, while current low headline inflation is expected to move toward the 4 % target over time. The outlook balances risks: a potential easing of US tariffs could lift exports and investment, whereas higher oil import prices could push inflation higher. The report also notes India’s fiscal stance is largely neutral, offering growth support amid global trade headwinds while restoring fiscal buffers. Sustained public investment and deeper public‑private partnerships could speed infrastructure development and ease persistent bottlenecks. Just before the RBI’s monetary policy committee meeting (Dec 3‑5), the OECD observed that India’s policy rate has eased earlier this year; with inflation below target and growth under trend, there is room for additional cuts. After India’s 8.2 % growth in the second quarter of FY26, economists are now forecasting over 7 % for the full year. On a global scale, the OECD says the world economy remains resilient but fragile, projecting growth to slip from 3.2 % in 2025 to 2.9 % in 2026 before picking up to 3.1 % in 2027. US GDP is expected to decline from 2.0 % in 2025 to 1.7 % in 2026, then rise slightly to 1.9 % in 2027. The Euro area is seen growing 1.3 % in 2025, 1.2 % in 2026, and 1.4 % in 2027, while China’s growth is projected to ease from 5 % in 2025 to 4.4 % in 2026 and 4.3 % in 2027. sps/vd
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