Pakistan, Afghanistan, and China Team Up to Extend CPEC into Afghanistan—But Big Challenges Loom
In a surprising move amid tense ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the two countries along with China have agreed to stretch the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) right into Afghanistan. This development comes even as Kabul faces accusations from Islamabad of backing the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group that’s a huge headache for Pakistan.
China seems to have played the key role in sealing this deal. Reports suggest Beijing promised big investments in Afghan projects, but only if the Taliban government in Kabul cuts off support to the Pakistani Taliban. It’s a classic carrot-and-stick approach to smooth things over in this tricky neighborhood.
Yet, experts warn that turning this agreement into reality won’t be easy. An insightful piece in The Diplomat by Sudha Ramachandran dives deep into the hurdles, drawing from a chat with Shaheer Baig, a former official in Afghanistan’s National Security Council under ex-President Ashraf Ghani.
Baig doesn’t mince words: the CPEC extension faces steep odds. He points to violent attacks in the unstable region, rampant corruption, and what he calls Pakistan’s "grand strategy" of stirring up chaos in Afghanistan to gain control. For decades, Pakistan has seen Afghanistan as a buffer against India, pushing to influence its military, foreign policy, and trade routes. This mindset, Baig argues, keeps the area in turmoil and blocks major projects.
History backs this up. Chinese firms have grabbed contracts in Afghanistan before, but they’ve rarely delivered. Take the Mes Aynak copper mine: awarded to China’s Metallurgical Corp of China (MCC), it stalled because the site lacks basic electricity and water for such a massive operation. More recently, a Chinese oil project in northern Afghanistan’s Sar-e-Pul hit snags when Taliban fighters detained the engineers.
These aren’t isolated issues. Afghanistan’s rugged terrain, especially along the disputed Durand Line, is home to tribal groups quick to spark violence and sabotage foreign investments. Add in corruption and Pakistan’s alleged meddling, and Baig says no big initiative—even one led by China—stands a chance.
Afghanistan craves a spot in China’s massive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), but not via CPEC. Baig notes they’d prefer a direct route through the Wakhan Corridor straight to China for trade. However, that’s not on Beijing’s radar. China, like India and others, views Afghanistan mainly through a security lens, not as a trade partner. Feasibility issues in the tough terrain seal the deal against it.
The Taliban, desperate for cash to run their fledgling government, eye China’s economic might hungrily. But they lack experience and misunderstand how it works—no free money flows from Beijing. Baig recalls his time in office: China offered mostly small aid packages under six figures, with rare bigger sums. Promised investments? They often fell flat.
As the dust settles on this CPEC extension pact, the real test lies ahead. Can these nations overcome the violence, politics, and logistics to make it work? For now, Afghanistan’s path to economic stability via BRI and CPEC remains bumpy at best.
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