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Tuesday, October 14, 2025
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Commentary: The curious market timing of Trump’s tariff threats

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Donald Trump has made a name for himself as a master dealmaker, but a Bloomberg Opinion columnist points out that his record in stock‑market timing is another story.

Shuli Ren, who writes for Bloomberg, argues that Trump’s knack for closing business deals doesn’t automatically translate into smart financial moves in the market. “Dealmaking is about negotiation and partnership,” Ren writes, “while market timing is about predicting movements that are largely out of your control.”

The former president’s investment choices have sparked debate. He famously sold shares of his companies in the late 1980s and again in 2015 during the trade‑war‐heated period. In both cases, the shares recouped their value within a year, but many critics say that shareholders lost a great deal of value in the interim. Ren cites the 2018 earnings season as an example: Trump’s companies posted higher-than‑expected quarterly profits, yet their stock prices took a significant hit after the announcement. The pattern, he says, highlights the difference between a productive deal that creates intrinsic value and a simple bet on market timing that can suffer write‑downs.

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The key issue, according to Ren, is that Trump often reacts to short‑term headlines rather than taking a long‑term investment view. “He tends to move out of positions on a whim, either to keep his brand front‑and‑center or to satisfy political pressure,” she notes. For most investors, the best practice is to focus on fundamentals—quality earnings, sustainable growth, and sound governance—rather than chase quick returns.

Red flags are even clearer when looking at how Trump’s personal portfolio fared during the pandemic. He retired a vast number of his own investments in 2020, yet the stock market rose dramatically in the following months. More than half of the positions he closed had already climbed to record highs. Many analysts see these moves as a classic case of “selling low, buying high,” a strategy that only a few professional portfolio managers would endorse.

As Ren points out, even the biggest dealmakers can misjudge market timing. The lesson for viewers and investors alike is that a winning trade on a big market isn’t the same as a well‑run partnership.

On the same day that Trump’s personal handouts were under scrutiny, Bloomberg Opinion published this long‑awaited reminder that the art of dealmaking and the art of well‑timed stock trades require different skills. These insights serve as a helpful reminder that a name you respect in business can face pitfalls when you step outside of that domain.


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