US experts are sounding the alarm to the Trump administration: Straining ties with India could backfire big time. In a recent Foreign Affairs article, former top officials Kurt Campbell and Jake Sullivan put it bluntly: “The only thing harder than building and formalizing a deeply significant relationship with India is not having one.”
This warning comes as US-India relations hit rough patches. Tensions spiked after President Trump slapped tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, even as the US cozied up to Pakistan. Experts say this move risks pushing away a key partner and weakening India’s long-standing bond with Russia.
Nikki Haley, former South Carolina governor, added her voice, cautioning that hurting US-India ties hands China a free pass. With Beijing deepening links to Moscow, alienating India could let China dominate more in the region.
The Eurasia Review report points out a stark double standard. Trump’s trade deal with Pakistan offers preferential tariffs and oil exploration support, without demanding Pakistan cut ties with China. That has emboldened Pakistan to take a tougher stance against India.
Things got even tenser when Trump welcomed Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, to the White House. This came right after the deadly April 22 Pahalgam terrorist attack in India. During a meeting in Tampa, Florida, with US military leaders present, Munir dropped a provocative line: “If Pakistan goes down, it would take half the world down with it.” Critics slammed the remark as a veiled threat toward India.
Former Pentagon official Michael Rubin didn’t hold back, calling Munir “Osama bin Laden in a suit” and blasting the US for missing the ideological roots of terrorism.
India has been a reliable US ally since the Cold War ended. Barack Obama once dubbed it an “indispensable partner,” and it’s a core part of the Quad alliance. At the center of Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy—which China dismisses as an “Asian NATO”—India helps counter Beijing’s growing sway. Until this recent trade spat, the two nations built strong ties to balance China’s influence.
If the trust gap widens, both the US and India could lose ground in the vital Indian Ocean region. Bottom line? They need each other more than ever to navigate these global shifts.
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