In the New Jersey gubernatorial race, Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli is staring at a tough challenge. Early voting shows about 300,000 more Democrats than Republicans have already cast their ballots for the upcoming election.
The numbers don’t reveal how many of the 1.3 million early voters chose Ciattarelli, but they do signal a high Democratic turnout. The 63‑year‑old GOP contender will likely need a big boost on Election Day to stay in the lead.
“Early turnout is high enough that we can think of the election in two halves—before Election Day and on Election Day,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for NJ Politics at Rider University. “In the first half, about 300,000 more Democrats than Republicans will have voted. Can the GOP match that on the second half?” he asked on X.
Early voting breakdown
- 50.6 % of early voters were registered Democrats
- 28.9 % were registered Republicans
- 20.5 % had another affiliation
(Information from VoteHub.)
In 2021, early voting accounted for roughly 51 % of the 2.6 million total votes. Republicans traditionally lag after early voting, but Ciattarelli’s team has urged supporters to vote early. His campaign bus even sports the message: “Vote Early In‑Person Oct. 25 – Nov. 2.”
The current gap is a touch worse than in the 2021 cycle, when Ciattarelli beat the then‑incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy on Election Day by a near 3‑point margin, despite a 277,000 early‑voting difference in favor of Democrats.
Registered voters have shifted
New Jersey Democrats still outnumber Republicans by about 853,000, a smaller gap than the 1.1 million difference seen in August 2021. The early‑in‑person vote ended Sunday, and the data still favor Democrats slightly more than four years ago.
A recent tweet from VoteHub noted a 4.4 % Democratic edge on early‑in‑person ballots, a 0.4 % edge on the night before Election Day.
Mail‑in ballots
- 61.9 % of mail ballots came from Democrats
- 20.8 % from Republicans
- 17.4 % from others
Four years ago, Democrats held 62.7 % and Republicans 19 % of the mail vote.
County‑level clues
In Monmouth County—an area where Ciattarelli spent a lot of time campaigning—Democrats lead early‑voting by more than 800 ballots. Last year, in a higher‑turnout presidential cycle, Republicans had an 8,400‑ballot edge just a day before Election Day.
Polling trend
Ciattarelli has been gaining ground. The latest RealClearPolitics aggregate shows Democratic nominee Mike Sherrill with a 3.3‑point advantage. Sherrill also received support from high‑profile Democrats like former President Barack Obama in the final push.
In short, New Jersey’s early‑vote numbers give Democrats a cushion, but Ciattarelli still has a chance to claw back the advantage on Election Day. All eyes will be on the final turnouts as the state approaches November 4.
Source: New York Post
Stay informed on all the latest news, real-time breaking news updates, and follow all the important headlines in world News on Latest NewsX. Follow us on social media Facebook, Twitter(X), Gettr and subscribe our Youtube Channel.
