South Asia expert Michael Kugelman says ongoing trade talks between India and the United States could pave the way for a stronger partnership. He believes a potential India-US trade deal would build trust, ease tensions, and steady the relationship amid recent strains.
In an interview with , Kugelman emphasized that these discussions show both countries’ commitment to working things out. “The path to stabilizing this relationship and moving away from the crisis is to have a trade deal,” he said. “It’s significant that even with tensions as high as they’ve been, we’ve kept the India-US trade talks going in recent days, and there’s no sign they’ll stop soon.”
Kugelman pointed out that a successful trade agreement would serve as a key confidence-building measure. It could cut the steep US tariffs on Indian goods, which have fueled much of the friction. “If we do get a trade deal, that would be a big confidence-building measure, would restore some trust in the relationship, and it would also reduce one of the biggest tension points—the very high US tariffs that have been imposed on India,” he added.
The analyst also raised concerns about the recent hike in H-1B visa fees, seeing it as a red flag for US-India relations. This comes even after a phone call between former US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “This decision to impose high fees on the H-1B visa program is another indication that the relationship is still in a bad state,” Kugelman noted.
He explained why the H-1B program matters so much. It supports commercial ties, boosts people-to-people connections, and powers the US-India tech partnership. Many Indian tech firms rely on it to send skilled workers to the US. “The H-1B visa issue is very significant for the relationship because it contributed in a big way to broader commercial relations,” he said. “It has really bolstered people-to-people ties and has been a big part of the tech partnership between the US and India.”
Kugelman warned that higher fees could create lasting hurdles for US-India tech cooperation. “These kinds of steps make it much more difficult for Indian tech workers to be based in the United States; it represents a pretty significant blow to US-India tech relations,” he concluded.
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