Russia getting its way would cost Europe hundreds of billions more than ensuring Ukraine victory: study
The new Norwegian analysis, titled “Europe’s Choice,” argues that backing Ukraine in its fight against Russia will be far less expensive for European governments than yielding to the Kremlin’s demands.
According to the study, pouring money into Ukraine’s war effort over a four‑year span would require roughly $606 billion to $972 billion. By contrast, if the West were to try to bolster Ukraine on the eastern front to confront Moscow’s ambitions, the cost would climb to almost $1.4 trillion to $1.8 trillion.
The report, produced by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs in partnership with Corisk consultants, notes that the Trump administration’s recent 28‑point peace proposal is “out of touch with the real issues at stake.” It also assumes that the United States would offer little support for Ukraine.
With minimal U.S. military aid, the authors predict a gradual Russian advance that could send the European Union facing a burden of up to $1.8 trillion. In that eventuality, millions of Ukrainians would flee, overwhelming European borders and inflating national budget deficits. Russia would also strengthen its geopolitical position, potentially redirecting attention toward the Arctic or Baltic regions and forcing NATO members to raise defense spending to safeguard their western frontiers.
On the other hand, if the EU can secure between $606 billion and $972 billion in a four‑year window for Ukraine’s military, the study says it would put a decisive victory within reach. Such an influx would enable Ukraine to build a stronger military—adding eight million drones, ninety‑five brigades, and up to 2,500 new battle tanks, among other hardware—for a campaign that would stabilize the region, encourage the return of displaced people, and attract foreign investment.
The authors contend that should a long‑term conflict ensue or Russia prevail, Ukraine will need continual aid. Conversely, a Ukrainian military triumph would gradually reduce Western involvement. They also suggest that the required funds could, in part, be sourced by seizing frozen Russian assets.
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