New York sports fans know the drill: even top coaches can get the boot in this tough town. Take the Rangers firing Peter Laviolette just a year after he nearly won the Stanley Cup, or the Liberty parting ways with Sandy Brondello right after her WNBA championship squad. And don’t forget Tom Thibodeau, shown the door by the Knicks despite guiding them to the Eastern Conference finals for the first time since 2000.
Now, enter Giants head coach Brian Daboll. Three games into his fourth season, his overall record sits at 18-35. He had a bright spot early on—a playoff road win at Minnesota in his first year—but things have gone south since, with a 9-28 mark and the team’s offense ranking near the bottom (27th, 31st, and 30th in points scored).
The Giants struggled to score or win big with stars like Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones, both of whom have landed on their feet elsewhere—Barkley thriving with the Eagles and Jones starting for the Vikings. So why is Daboll still on the hot seat but not fired yet as the Giants face the Chargers on Sunday at MetLife Stadium?
For one, co-owner John Mara is fed up with quick-trigger firings after just two seasons or less, like with Joe Judge, Pat Shurmur, and Ben McAdoo. The bigger reason? The Giants used their 25th pick in this year’s NFL Draft on quarterback Jaxson Dart, and Daboll’s track record with QBs—especially turning Josh Allen into an MVP machine—gives this new pairing a real shot. That shot comes now in Week 4, after Daboll saw up close why coaches like Pete Carroll, Sean Payton, and Mike Tomlin thought Russell Wilson was done.
This might be Daboll’s final chance, though. A mediocre finish, say 4-10 with a late rally, probably won’t save him. Some hotshot offensive coordinator could swoop in and convince Mara and Steve Tisch they can unlock Dart better. And is Week 4 the ideal debut for Dart? The Chargers boast a solid defense and rank as a top-tier NFL team. Plus, key receiver Malik Nabers is nursing a shoulder injury, and next week’s trip to New Orleans looks like easier sledding.
On the flip side, introducing Dart now as the fresh-faced hero could rally the fans and spark the team. Expect his teammates to step up, giving Giants fans the best version of this squad for at least one week.
Pick: Giants +6.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) over Minnesota Vikings (in Dublin, Ireland)
Aaron Rodgers hasn’t had luck in Europe, dropping games as a Packer to the Giants in 2022 and as a Jet to these Vikings last year—both in London. Carson Wentz stepped up big in his Vikings debut, torching Cincinnati 48-10 last week. But I see the Rodgers-led Steelers offense clicking more as the season rolls on.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Both squads pulled off comebacks last week—the Eagles erasing a 26-7 deficit against the Rams, and the Bucs dodging a miracle Jets blocked field goal. With injuries piling up for Tampa and 91-degree heat in the mix, expect Philly to dominate the lines on both sides and wear them down.
New Orleans Saints (+15.5) over Buffalo Bills
The Bills are pouring up 34 points per game, but they eased off the gas against the Jets and lacked fire versus the Dolphins. The Saints push a fast tempo and still pack weapons like Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave. If Buffalo isn’t in full attack mode, that backdoor cover stays wide open.
Atlanta Falcons (+1) over Washington Commanders
Dan Quinn returns to face the Falcons, the team he once took to a Super Bowl. Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota lit up the Raiders for 41 points, but Washington might miss star receiver Terry McLaurin. The Falcons’ ugly 30-0 loss at Carolina last week screams bounce-back potential—NFL teams often rebound big from those.
Detroit Lions (-10) over Cleveland Browns
The Lions face a quick turnaround after Monday’s rout of the Ravens, and the spread has climbed into double digits. Cleveland leads the league in yards allowed per game, but none of that matters. The Browns just can’t keep up with Detroit’s track-meet pace.
Houston Texans (-7) over Tennessee Titans
Sure, it’s tough to back a 0-3 Texans team averaging a measly 12.6 points per game while laying seven. But Tennessee’s defense has been a sieve, coughing up more points each week with widening losses. This feels like Houston’s get-right spot.
New England Patriots (-5.5) over Carolina Panthers
Dig into the stats: Carolina stunned Atlanta 30-0 last week but got outgained by 112 yards. The Pats fell 24-17 to the Jets, but it took five turnovers to pull that off—New England actually held a 166-yard edge. Rookie Drake Maye’s sky-high 72.6% completion rate should start turning into real points here.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) over San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers’ injury list is brutal—Brock Purdy and backup Mac Jones are questionable, they could miss two receivers (Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall), and Nick Bosa is out for the year. That makes grabbing points with Trevor Lawrence and the Jags a smart play.
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) over Indianapolis Colts
The Rams built a 26-7 lead over the Eagles on the road last week before it slipped away—they’ll be fired up and focused at home. For the 3-0 Colts and Daniel Jones, this screams wrong place, wrong time.
Las Vegas Raiders (+1) over Chicago Bears
The Raiders sit at 1-2, scraping by with 14.6 points per game. Still, better days loom for coach Pete Carroll with Geno Smith, tight end Brock Bowers, and rookie sensation Ashton Jeanty. The Bears are surrendering a league-worst 31 points per game—perfect setup for Vegas to spark.
Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) over Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens hit Arrowhead on short rest after the Lions’ Monday night beatdown, and they might miss defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike. Chiefs speedster Xavier Worthy should return, joining new target Tyquan Thornton after Patrick Mahomes’ latest gem in the Giants win.
Green Bay Packers (-7) over Dallas Cowboys
Prime-time trouble brews for Jerry Jones: Micah Parsons eyes Dak Prescott, and star CeeDee Lamb sits out. The Packers limp in off a blown 10-0 lead in Cleveland, hungry for redemption.
Monday: Miami Dolphins (-2.5) over New York Jets
The Dolphins got extra rest after a 31-21 loss at Buffalo. Tua Tagovailoa owns a 6-0 record lifetime against the Jets, who lost key defender Quincy Williams. Miami’s giving up 32.3 points per game (worst in the NFL), but offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand can exploit that with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.
Denver Broncos (-7.5) over Cincinnati Bengals
Backup Jake Browning has five picks in just a game and a half filling in for injured Joe Burrow. Denver’s defense is primed with All-Pro corner Patrick Surtain II ready to shadow Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Best Bets: Packers, Patriots, Raiders.
Lock of the Week: Packers (1-2 in 2025 locks).
Last Week: 5-10-1 overall, 0-2-1 best bets.
Thursday: Seahawks.
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