Governor Kathy Hochul is still ahead of the most likely Republican contenders in 2026, according to a new Siena University poll released on Tuesday, even though half of New Yorkers expressed a desire for change.
Only 37% of respondents indicated they wanted to keep Hochul in office, while a sizable 50% preferred a different candidate.
Nonetheless, Hochul maintains substantial margins over probable GOP challengers – North Country Representative Elise Stefanik (R‑NY) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, as the survey shows.
In simulated one‑on‑one matchups, Siena estimates Hochul would outperform Stefanik 49% to 30% and Blakeman 50% to 25%.
“With six months until the primaries and 11 months before the general election, Hochul still carries a solid 19‑point advantage over Stefanik, and one in five voters remain undecided. Her edge over Blakeman is even larger, at 25 points,” Siena Poll spokesperson Steven Greenberg said.
“Hochul enjoys support from more than three‑quarters of Democrats when compared to either Republican. Among Republicans, Stefanik leads 82‑7%, while Blakeman’s advantage is 73‑7%. In the independent bloc, Hochul also edges out Blakeman by ten points and Stefanik by seven,” Greenberg added.
Stefanik would also defeat Blakeman in a GOP primary, with 48% to 17% in the Siena head‑to‑head tally.
Blakeman, who only officially declared his candidacy last week, faces a challenge in name recognition, with 70% of voters unfamiliar with him versus 44% who don’t know Stefanik.
However, the Nassau County poll highlights promising support for Blakeman in key suburbs—Suffolk, Nassau, Westchester, Rockland, and Putnam counties—where he has a net favorability of 22% to 19%, contrasting with Stefanik’s negative 20% to 27% in the same areas.
In the Democratic primary arena, Hochul continues to dominate her only serious challenger, Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado. Siena’s latest poll projects Hochul winning a direct contest against Delgado 56% to 13%.
The survey also showed a rare — though modest — positive shift in favorability for Hochul in December, with 43% rating her favorably versus 41% unfavorable. This marks one of only three monthly polls this year where Siena reports a net positive for Hochul.
That is an improvement over the Siena poll conducted a year ago, which placed Hochul at 39% favorable against 49% unfavorable.
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