Natural Gas Set to Rise in US, China, and India Energy Mix by 2050
Imagine a world where fossil fuels still power most of our lives, but one stands out as the hero of the transition: natural gas. A new report from Nuvama Institutional Equities, based on S&P Global Commodity Insights, paints this picture for the United States, China, and India. By 2050, natural gas will be the only fossil fuel seeing growth in these countries’ energy mixes, while coal and oil fade away globally.
The report highlights how renewables are surging worldwide, jumping from just 4% today to about 20% by 2050. Yet, fossil fuels won’t vanish—they’ll still make up over 50% of the global energy basket in major economies. It’s a reminder that the shift to clean energy is happening, but it’s gradual.
In India, the story is especially telling. Right now in 2024, fossil fuels dominate with 77% of the energy mix, while renewables sit at a tiny 2%. Fast forward to 2050, and fossil fuels drop to 66%, with renewables climbing to 16%. That’s progress, but it shows India still relies heavily on traditional sources.
Why natural gas? The report calls it a "transition fuel"—cleaner than coal and more flexible for power generation. In places like the US, Europe, and Southeast Asia, switching from coal to gas has smoothed the path to greener energy. India, however, has been slower to adopt gas in its power sector. The big challenge? Jumping straight from coal to renewables isn’t easy due to scalability and cost issues. Natural gas steps in as the bridge to net-zero emissions.
On a brighter note, India is making moves in everyday life. Government programs like PAHAL and targeted LPG subsidies are pushing families away from traditional biomass for cooking—like wood or dung—which has already fallen from 38% to 19% of the mix. Expect that number to drop even more as cleaner LPG takes over.
India’s big plans, including the National Hydrogen Mission and recent GST cuts to boost renewables, show real ambition. But the report warns that without deeper changes—like gas market reforms, better pricing, and more storage for renewables—India might miss its emission targets. As the cleanest fossil fuel, natural gas could balance things out if taxes and policies support it. Otherwise, hitting the 2070 net-zero goal could be tough.
This update underscores the global energy transition’s realities: renewables are key, but natural gas plays a vital role in getting us there, especially in growing economies like India.
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