Kevin Hassett regains lead over Kevin Warsh on prediction markets in neck-and-neck Fed chairman race
Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh are locked in a close contest to become the next Federal Reserve chair, with their standings switching back and forth on trading platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket over the past week.
Hassett recently pushed himself back to the top of Kalshi’s charts, citing his plans to bring a “facts‑driven” approach to rate decisions. In a CNBC interview, he stressed the importance of the Fed’s independence, saying, “The Fed’s independence is really, really important, and the voices of the other people at the [Federal Open Market Committee], they’re important, too.”
He made it clear that, as chair, he would not let the president’s personal views sway the panel’s choices, but he did note that Trump has “very strong and well‑founded views about what we ought to do,” and the committee could decide differently if they disagree.
Throughout the weekend, Hassett told CBS’s “Face the Nation” that Trump’s opinions would carry no weight in his decision‑making, though he admired the former president’s perspective and promised the Fed would still vote as a group.
Meanwhile, Warsh, who served on the Fed from 2006 to 2011, has also been vying for the post. Bloomberg reported last month that he had emerged as a serious contender, particularly among business leaders and institutional investors who fear a Hassett appointment might simply act as Trump’s puppet.
Warsh said he does not think Trump would disqualify candidates for being “a close friend,” a view that has resonated with many in the market.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Kalshi gave about 53 % of its market to Hassett and 34 % to Warsh, while Polymarket was slightly higher at 54 % for Hassett and 36 % for Warsh. Other potential names—Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—commanded only a handful of percentages.
On Monday, Kalshi flipped the lead in favor of Warsh, who then held a 46 % win probability, after reports surfaced that top advisers were concerned about Hassett’s perceived closeness to the president.
Over the last week, the odds have swung dramatically, with Hassett’s support dipping as low as 10 % on Kalshi in an early surge of Warsh‑favoring sentiment, while some analysts warned that a Hassett appointment might erode the Fed’s credibility.
Trump has publicly announced that he will conduct a final round of interviews. The president earlier told reporters he already had a candidate in mind, but during an interview with the Wall Street Journal, he acknowledged that Warsh had climbed to the top of his list.
He praised both Kevins, saying, “I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They’re both – I think the two Kevins are great,” before adding that a few other strong candidates were also on his radar.
With the race still on, market watchers will be tracking how political calculations, institutional preferences, and each candidate’s track record might ultimately decide who takes the helm of the country’s central bank.
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