Latest Economy Observer from Dun & Bradstreet highlights broad-based domestic momentum and easing inflation despite rising trade pressures
(source : ANI) ( Photo Credit : ani)
India’s Economy Shows Strong Growth Amid Challenges: Dun & Bradstreet’s Latest Report
Mumbai, September 12: Global business analytics leader Dun & Bradstreet has just dropped its Economy Observer report for August 2025. This monthly update dives into India’s key economic trends, forecasts major indicators, and predicts where the economy is headed. If you’re tracking India’s GDP growth, inflation rates, or trade updates, this report has the fresh insights you need.
Real Economy Picks Up Speed with GDP Boost
India’s economy kicked off FY 2026 on a high note. In the first quarter, GDP jumped 7.8% year-on-year—the strongest growth in five quarters. This came thanks to solid private consumption and investments, even as exports faced headwinds.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose 3.5% in July 2025, fueled by manufacturing wins in basic metals, electrical equipment, and non-metallic minerals. Dun & Bradstreet predicts IIP will climb even higher to 6.0% in August, thanks to steady demand in construction and a helpful base effect from last year.
Good news on the policy front too: The government plans a major GST reform by Diwali in October 2025. It will cut taxes on essentials, packaged foods, and electronics, fix inverted duties, and simplify rules for small businesses. This could boost urban spending and support rural demand.
But trade tensions loom large. The US slapped a 50% tariff on Indian exports starting August 27, hitting sectors like textiles, jewellery, and electronics hard. India is fighting back by eyeing new markets in Africa, Latin America, and East Asia to diversify and soften the impact.
Inflation Cools Down, Bringing Price Stability
India’s inflation story is all positive right now. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 1.6% in July 2025—the lowest in over eight years. Food prices drove this drop, with vegetables, pulses, cereals, and sugar seeing sharp declines. Rural CPI fell to 1.2%, while urban hit 2.1%, and food inflation even turned negative in both areas.
A strong monsoon, good kharif sowing, and stable farm output are keeping things in check. Dun & Bradstreet expects CPI to hold steady at 1.6% in August, maintaining this low path.
Wholesale prices are cooling too. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) dipped 0.6% in July, and the forecast shows it staying negative at -0.2% for August. Falling input costs and lower global oil prices are helping here, pointing to sustained relief for businesses and consumers.
Money and Finance: Steady Yields, Growing Credit
Investors stayed cautious in August 2025 due to global jitters, but the financial scene looks supportive. Dun & Bradstreet forecasts the 10-year G-Sec yield will remain at 6.4%, backed by targeted investor buys and RBI’s liquidity help. The 91-day T-Bill yield should also stay flat at 5.4%, with strong auction demand and short-term liquidity easing worries.
Bank credit growth is set to speed up to 11.2% in August from 9.6% in July, driven by festive season buzz, better credit access, and cheaper loans. The RBI kept its repo rate at 5.50% with a neutral stance, watching inflation closely. Liquidity surplus hit ₹1.79 lakh crore, absorbed through Standing Deposit Facility and reverse repo ops.
Overall, policy continuity boosts confidence, but trade issues, fiscal risks, and global caution keep things mixed.
External Sector: Rupee Faces Mild Pressure
Looking ahead to September 2025, the Indian rupee might feel some moderate strain, averaging ₹87.2 per USD—slightly better than ₹87.4 in August. Global uncertainties are at play, but strong services exports and possible RBI moves should provide a buffer. Still, export competition and shifting trade winds could test sentiments.
Expert Take: Steady Growth with Smart Moves Needed
Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist at Dun & Bradstreet, shares an optimistic yet realistic view. "India’s growth stays on track, powered by domestic demand and reforms," he says. "But keeping the momentum means handling external shocks and grabbing structural opportunities. Q1 FY26’s GDP beat expectations, with consumption and investment shining despite trade drags from net exports."
He adds that GST tweaks will likely spark urban buying, pairing well with tough rural demand to offset tariff hits. Diversifying trade will be key to tackling global vulnerabilities.
About Dun & Bradstreet
Dun & Bradstreet leads in business data and analytics, helping companies worldwide boost revenue, cut costs, manage risks, and innovate. Since 1841, it’s been a go-to for spotting opportunities.
In India, Dun & Bradstreet Information Services India Private Limited, based in Mumbai, offers data tools for finance, risk, compliance, IT, and marketing. It supports the government’s Atmanirbhar Bharat and Make in India pushes by aiding entrepreneurs with visibility, credibility, global reach, and risk management. It’s also Great Place to Work® Certified for 2025-26, highlighting its top-notch workplace vibe.
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For more, check www.dnb.com or www.dnb.co.in. Stay updated on India economic forecasts, GDP trends, inflation updates, and RBI policies with Dun & Bradstreet’s ongoing reports.
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