The 2026 elections in Bangladesh are set to draw a lot of attention—but reports suggest the contest may be anything but peaceful. Islamabad appears to be seeking a foothold in Dhaka, using the fissures in the country’s political landscape to its advantage.
With the Awami League legally barred from running, all eyes turn to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Bangladesh’s largest opposition, and to the Jamaat‑e‑Islami. The latter is widely seen as a puppet of Pakistan’s Inter‑Services Intelligence (ISI) and is believed to tightly control the current political machine. Although businessman Muhammad Yunus is now the driving force behind Bangladesh’s politics, many analysts report that he is simply following the script that the ISI has written for the Jamaat to execute.
The Jamaat has already warned that the lead‑up to the polls could be explosive. In the meantime, Indian intelligence has received credible information that eight senior officials of the Pakistan Army visited Bangladesh recently. Some of these officers are still active in the military; others are retired. Among the names surfaced are Brigadier Shoeb Asif Khan, Raja Irfan Yaseen, Muhammad Ashraf Shahid, Syed Saqib, Murtaza, Muhammad Meraj, Afzal Ahmed Khan, Lt. Col (Retd) Ullah, and Waqar Ur Rahman.
According to sources, the group flew into Dhaka last week, chartered helicopters, and crossed into the India‑Bangladesh frontier. There they allegedly met with militants operating in that corridor, giving them instructions to spark violence not only inside Bangladesh but also along the border as the elections approached.
Earlier in the year, intelligence agencies also tracked visits by former Pakistani parliamentarian Shah Mahmood and advisor to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Shah Baz Humaira. The two were spotted engaging with Bangladesh’s political elite before departing on November 16.
These events unfold against the backdrop of Jamaat‑e‑Islami’s leader, Dr. Shafiqur Rahman, who warned that holding the national referendum and the polls on the same day could trigger a “genocide” – a phrase meant to convey the chaos he fears. He argues that the dual events would destabilise the system and give no fair chance to other parties.
Experts point out that the Jamaat feels very vulnerable at present. With Yunus at the helm, the group merely follows directives from the ISI. Current opinion polls suggest that the BNP is well ahead now that the Awami League has been excluded from the race.
The Jamaat’s place as the runner‑up makes it anxious about the final outcome. Since the BNP and the Jamaat have split, the party’s victory would likely trap the Jamaat in a weak position. The BNP appears intent on restoring stability rather than reverting to the more radical tactics it employed during earlier terms, and wishes to reshape its public image – a move that both the ISI and the Jamaat find unsettling. Adding another wrinkle, the BNP signals a willingness to restore ties with India; Indian officials have been in contact with BNP leaders all year round to forge amicable relations for mutual benefit.
Faced with this political calculus, the only remaining strategy for the Pakistani side appears to be to incite violence and derail the electoral process. The ISI wants the Jamaat in control so that it can operate as a proxy and run its throughout the system free from scrutiny. This aligns with a broader ISI objective to keep the north‑eastern border tense, thereby impacting India’s national security.
Under Yunus’s influence, Pakistan has secured significant concessions from Bangladesh, including the opening of sea routes, relaxed visa regimes, and restored diplomatic ties – all aimed at pressuring India. As election day draws closer, Pakistan’s anxiety grows about whether its proxy, the Jamaat, can keep the power structure intact. Consequently, a large-scale campaign to destabilise the vote and ensure Jamaat dominance has reportedly been launched, according to an Intelligence Bureau officer.
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