“Only common denominator is Nitish Kumar”: Axis My India’s Pradeep Gupta hints at close contest in Bihar
(source : ANI) ( Photo Credit : ani)
Pollster Pradeep Gupta, chairman and managing director of Axis My India, sees Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar as the key figure shaping the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections. With polls set for later this year, Gupta predicts a tight race between the ruling NDA alliance—led by BJP and JD(U)—and the opposition Mahagathbandhan, backed by RJD and Congress.
In a recent interview with , Gupta explained why Bihar elections remain tough to predict, even after votes are cast. “Last time around, both the NDA and the INDIA bloc grabbed 37% of the vote share,” he said. “But NDA ended up with 125 seats, while RJD and its allies took 110.” This shows how Bihar’s complex voter dynamics can flip close results.
Gupta highlighted anti-incumbency as a major factor, but noted it’s unique in Bihar because Nitish Kumar has held power for two decades. “Even if voters feel tired of the current setup, they often ask: What’s the real alternative?” he added. When pressed on whether RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav could step in as that option, Gupta turned the spotlight to BJP instead. He pointed to ongoing “jungle raj” allegations—claims of lawlessness and extortion—tied to Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD during its past rule.
“Nitish Kumar has flipped alliances multiple times over these 20 years, so many in Bihar now view BJP as a solid alternative,” Gupta said. He also mentioned emerging players like Tejashwi or strategist Prashant Kishor as potential challengers.
What keeps RJD strong as the main opposition? Gupta credits the party’s solid Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) voter base, which makes up about 31-32% of the population. “Bihar stands out as the only state in the last 20-30 years to conduct a full caste census,” he noted. “This M-Y equation has helped RJD hold its ground, despite spending most of that time out of power and facing those jungle raj accusations.”
Gupta also sees a boost for NDA from the inclusion of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas). “In the last election, RJD looked set to win more, but if LJP had joined NDA like they are now, we estimate NDA could have claimed 138 seats,” he said.
The Election Commission of India hasn’t announced dates yet, but excitement is building for this high-stakes Bihar Assembly election battle between NDA and Mahagathbandhan.
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