Strong GST collections belies absurd fear of large falls, states turn net gainers: SBI Research
New Delhi – On November 1, State Bank of India (SBI) research debunked fears that the recent GST rationalisation will slash state revenues.
The bank said that the latest data shows GST collection is on the rise, not falling. Gross GST collections for October – which include September’s returns – jumped 4.6 % to ₹1.96 trillion. Domestic collections grew 2 % year‑on‑year, and import‑side revenue surged 12.8 %.
September’s e‑way bill volume hit an all‑time high, reaching ₹13.2 crore. Meanwhile, cumulative refunds posted in October totaled ₹2.69 trillion, up 39.6 % from the same period last year. These gains highlight how the new GST system is keeping business flow smooth.
Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, SBI’s Group Chief Economic Advisor, explained: “If states see the same pattern of gains and losses as October, most of them will finish the fiscal year in positive shape. The rationalisation is not hurting revenue overall.”
Union officials had warned that the change might cost ₹48 000 crore in revenue, whereas some research groups had even predicted losses of up to ₹10 lakh crore. The SBI report points instead to evidence from earlier GST cuts in July 2018 and October 2019, where initial dips were followed by stronger inflows.
The bank’s analysis suggests that GST rationalisation will not drain state coffers but rather stabilise and eventually increase them, countering the alarm‑mongering headlines.
Source: ianslive
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