New Delhi, Nov 22 ( LatestNewsX ) – In a striking demonstration of economic resilience, Harvard Professor Jason Furman has highlighted India as the world’s standout performer in real GDP growth since the Covid‑19 pandemic, even outpacing major powers such as the United States and China.
Furman shared a compelling chart that shows real GDP as a percentage of the 2019 pre‑pandemic trend through the third quarter of 2025. While most developed economies are still dealing with the lingering aftershocks of the 2020 downturn, India’s growth has risen sharply, leaping past the zero line and advancing toward a +5 per cent rebound by mid‑2025.
The graph, which Furman has referenced in recent analyses of global recoveries, plots five top economies: the United States (blue), the Euro Area (green), China (gray), Russia (orange), and India (green – distinct for its upward surge).
All these countries slid into negative territory in 2020: the Euro Area fell by a sharp‑25 per cent, the U.S. by about –5 per cent, and China by roughly –10 per cent. From there, their recovery paths diverged dramatically.
The U.S. rebounded quickly, staying near +2 per cent by 2025, buoyed in part by aggressive fiscal stimulus such as the American Rescue Plan. Furman credits this approach with minimising “scarring” compared to weaker responses elsewhere.
In contrast, India’s rebound is unprecedented. Starting from a –5 per cent trough in 2020, its GDP relative to trend vaulted past pre‑Covid highs by 2022, reaching +3 per cent in 2024 and projected to hit +5 per cent by Q3 2025. This marks India as the sole economy that not only recovered but truly exceeded its long‑term path—a feat Furman attributes to structural strengths rather than one‑off boosts.
“What India’s policies fostered domestic consumption and investment amid global headwinds,” Furman noted in a recent X post, contrasting India’s trajectory with Europe’s energy shocks and China’s property crisis.
China’s gray line, for example, stabilises at –5 per cent by 2025, hampered by zero‑Covid lockdowns and real‑estate troubles. Russia’s orange curve plateaus near –8 per cent, battered by sanctions following the Ukraine invasion. The Euro Area remains at –3 per cent, wrestling with inflation and geopolitical fallout. Even the U.S., while robust, depends heavily on AI‑driven data‑center investments—accounting for 92 per cent of its first‑half 2025 growth in Furman’s calculations—raising questions about long‑term sustainability.
Economists view India’s momentum as a model for emerging markets. Robust digital infrastructure, a youthful demographic dividend, and reforms such as production‑linked incentives have supported 7‑8 per cent annual growth, according to IMF estimates. Exports in electronics and pharmaceuticals reached record highs, while services like IT outsourcing weathered global slowdowns. Fiscal prudence kept India’s deficits below 6 per cent of GDP, freeing resources for targeted infrastructure spending and social safety nets.
Furman’s chart signals a pivotal shift: as advanced economies hover near stagnation, India eyes $5 trillion GDP status by 2027. “Most countries saw quick bounces, but only a few truly outgrew the trauma. India leads that pack,” he said amid U.S. debates on fiscal policy. As 2025 draws to a close, the message is clear—the resilience demonstrated isn’t just a rebound, it’s a redefinition of the future.
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