In an exit‑poll snapshot that covered a 66,000‑person sample, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) seems to be pulling ahead in the Bihar assembly elections of 2025. The data, released by Matrize News Communications, shows the coalition headed by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar leading on a base of strong voter support, especially among women.
Women’s votes give the NDA a clear edge
“When voters came out, they wanted good governance and jobs,” said Manoj Kumar Singh, director of Matrize, during an interview with on Friday. He added that women “are fully behind Nitish Kumar” and that the NDA’s focus on these issues resonated with them. The exit poll confirms a 65 % share among female voters, compared with only 27 % for the Mahagathbandhan (MGB).
Jan Suraaj fizzles while NDA wins momentum
The single‑party Jan Suraaj, which initially received buzz, saw its voters shift back to the NDA. The shift reduced Jan Suraaj’s vote share to about 5 % and left them with just 0‑2 seats in the 294‑seat assembly. By contrast, the NDA is projected to win between 147 and 167 seats, capturing roughly 48 % of the vote.
MGB struggles with narrative gaps and a silent Rahul Gandhi
“The Grand Alliance abandoned the SIR issue midway and started talking about employment,” Singh said, explaining why MGB lost traction. Rahul Gandhi’s quiet presence also failed to rally voters, according to the pollster. As a result, MGB is estimated to secure 70‑90 seats and about 37 % of the vote share.
Regional breakdown and overall figures
- Male voters: NDA leads at 52 %, MGB at 36 %.
- Key regions: NDA dominates Angika (47.9 %), Bhojpur (48.4 %), Magadh (48.8 %) and Mithilanchal (47.7 %). The MGB edges the Seemanchal area at 49.9 %.
Other parties, including AIMIM, are projected to win a handful of seats (2‑3) with a 1 % share, while the remaining 9 % of votes go to smaller groups totaling 0‑5 seats.
What this means for the election outcome
With the NDA gaining an advantage from women voters and a focus on governance and job creation, the exit poll paints a promising picture for the coalition. If the trends hold, the NDA could secure an outright majority in Bihar’s 294‑seat assembly. The Mahagathbandhan’s faltering narrative and low Rahul Gandhi visibility may limit its ability to challenge the NDA’s lead.
The exit‑poll results are based on a 3 % margin of error and were collected via field surveys and computer‑assisted telephone interviews (CATI) from November 6–11. As the election countdown continues, observers will keep a close eye on how these trends evolve in the coming days.
Source: ianslive
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