On December 27, 2025, opposition parties that are keen to consolidate their support for the 2026 state elections warned that the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) is eyeing tribal‑heavy ridings in states beyond its native Jharkhand. The move comes amid a broader real‑time assessment of political alignments that could influence the balance of power in the coming contest.
The JMM, which leads Jharkhand’s ruling coalition, flagged in 2024 that it intends to broaden its presence in a handful of constituencies in Assam and West Bengal where elections are scheduled for next year. The party is also looking at organising migrants from Jharkhand who now live in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. To that end, a small delegation has already been set up to travel to Assam in the coming weeks to gauge local conditions and test the waters.
In Bihar, the JMM had announced a plan to contest the 2024 assembly elections in alliance with the opposition Mahagathbandhan, but it was forced to pull out before voting began. The withdrawal left the JMM leadership disappointed and cautious, prompting them to review the status of their alliance with the ruling coalition in Jharkhand. Even though the Jharkhand government remains in office, the episode has left a quiet tension that could spill over into other states where the BJP‑led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is hoping to keep its vote base consolidated.
If rival parties fall into internal disagreements, they could fragment the anti‑NDA electorate in critical seats, effectively helping the BJP. In contrast, a united Front of non‑NDA parties would be better positioned to counter the BJP’s seat‑allocation strategy and potentially take advantage of any slack in the BJP’s stronghold.
Meanwhile, the JMM delegation’s report on its Assam visit will illuminate whether the party will pursue an outright partnership with major regional players in that state, or take a more cautious route. Assam is home to a sizable tribal population – in the 2011 Census the state had just over 30 million residents, of whom about 12 % were Scheduled Tribes. Most tribal voters live in rural areas, and the dominant groups include the Bodo, Mishing, Karbi, Rabha, Sonowal Kachari, Lalung, Garo and Dimasa peoples. The Assembly has 126 seats, 19 of which are reserved for Scheduled Tribes, and its 14 parliamentary seats include two that are similarly reserved.
Tribal issues in Assam are highly sensitive. Over the past decade there have been episodes of violence between tribal and non‑tribal communities, especially in Lower Assam where Bodo and Bengali‑speaking Muslims have clashed. Karbi Anglong remains on edge, with reports of tensions between local Karbi residents and non‑Karbi families, many of whom come from Bihar.
Assam’s political landscape is largely dominated by regional parties that operate through autonomous district councils. In that context, a national player like the JMM would have to negotiate with established local forces. The United People’s Party of Liberalism (UPPL), which had a foothold in the Bodoland Territorial Region, captured six of the 11 seats it contested in 2021 as part of the NDA. In 2021, the Bodoland People’s Front (BOPF) – formerly an NDA ally – joined the Congress‑led Mahajot, winning four of the 12 seats it fought for.
The JMM’s potential intrusion could squeeze the Congress in areas where it has historically relied on minority‑centered votes. Badruddin Ajmal, who heads the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), has remained silent on whether he will realign with the Congress‑led Mahajot for the 2026 Assam assembly election. Ajmal oscillates between courting an independent exit and seeking a pact with the All India Majlis‑e‑Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), a party headquartered in Hyderabad that has stirred the Congress’s minority strategy. While the AIUDF and Congress had cooperated in lower‑Assam and Barak Valley constituencies in 2021, their partnership was often shaky, with the Congress wary of Ajmal’s growing influence over Muslim voters.
In 2021, the AIUDF contested 20 seats in primarily Muslim‑majority areas and emerged with 16 wins. The Congress won 29 of its 95 contested seats, while the wider Mahajot coalition secured 50 seats – a notable increase from the 26 seats it captured in 2016. The BJP, with 60 seats, formed the state government and kept the NDA’s total at 75 seats, marking the first time a non‑Congress alliance had held a second consecutive term in Assam. The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), another BJP ally championing Assamese nationalism, captured nine seats. Although the main contest was between the BJP and Congress, regional and minority parties like the AIUDF, AGP, UPPL, and BOPF played key roles in coalition formation and swaying outcomes in tribal and minority areas.
The unfolding strategies ahead of the 2026 elections will likely hinge on how well opposition parties can avoid intra‑coalition dissonance and craft a united front capable of challenging the BJP’s vote base across the country. The JMM’s foray into tribal states and potential alliances with regional outfits may tip that balance, but only after the July 2024 results will the full picture be clear.
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