Virginia’s attorney‑general race has taken a sharp turn after a series of shocking text messages sent by Democratic challenger Jay Jones were released. The messages, flooding the National Review on October 3, showed Jones fantasizing about shooting former Republican House speaker Todd Gilbert in the head—an idea that has rattled voters and pushed the race closer than it had been in weeks.
Polling hits the skid
Independent polling run by the Jones campaign from October 4 to 6 shows the race nearly tied. Democrats hold a slim 46% advantage to 45% for incumbent Republican attorney‑general Jason Miyares. That is a steep decline from earlier national polls, where Jones led by about six points. The Washington Post–Schar school poll and a Christopher Newport University survey, both conducted before the text scandal broke, had Jones ahead by 51% to 45%.
Hart Research, a local pollster, found the weekend coverage of the texting saga hurt Jones’ public image. “Four‑forty‑four percent of voters reported feeling less favorable toward him,” the firm said. By contrast, only 12% felt more favorable after reading or hearing the news. Among voters who identify as neither Democrat nor Republican, Miyares edged out Jones 42% to 41%—a shift that may be the most dramatic in this election cycle.
Despite the dip, Hart Research still says the overall race dynamics have not flipped. “Jay’s lead has narrowed,” the memo read, “but he still has a clear path to victory in November.”
RAGA counters
Meanwhile, the Republican Attorneys‑General Association (RAGA) commissioned a poll that shows Miyares ahead by about two points (45.8% to 43.7%). The same pollster had shown Jones pulling ahead around 46% to 42% just a month earlier. RAGA also reports that Jones’ unpopularity shot up from 19% in September to more than 43% after the text scandal.
What the texts say
The controversy began when the National Review published text messages in October, revealing Jones’ unhinged remarks to former colleague Carrie Coyner in August 2022. Jones compared Speaker Todd Gilbert to dictators such as Adolf Hitler and Pol Pot. One message read, “Three people, two bullets – Gilbert, Hitler, Pol Pot. Gilbert gets two bullets to the head.” Later, Jones went further, saying that Gilbert’s children—whom he called “little fascists”—should die “in the arms of their mother” to force a political shift.
Coyner testified that Jones also mocked police officers during a 2020 call about qualified immunity. She recalled Jones saying if “a few police officers died,” the legal protection would not hold, hoping those officers would stop killing people. Jones denies these claims, although he has admitted sending the offensive texts and issued an apology.
Why it matters
The text incident hits Jones’ credibility just days before a surge of coverage could swing independent voters. Miyares, the current incumbent, already had an advantage in the independent‑voter segment. The scandal’s timing, with polls showing a nearly even race and an increasing share of negative sentiment, could narrow the Democratic lead even further.
In Virginia’s conservative-leaning electoral environment, a national eye is on the attorney‑general race as a bellwether for upcoming statewide contests. For voters who see the texts as evidence of Jones’ lack of judgment and temperament, the decision to support Miyares may now feel rational. Meanwhile, Democrats who still back Jones worry that the record‑low favorability could hurt their chances of keeping the office in the party’s hands.
Looking ahead
With November’s election fast approaching, the next few weeks will be decisive. The Jones campaign is working to rebuild trust, emphasizing his policy experience and commitment to public safety. He claims that the texting incident does not reflect his priorities or his ability to serve as attorney‑general.
Policymakers in Richmond are urging a careful review of the texts, citing the need for a safe and respectful political discourse. Republicans have vowed to use the alleged violent rhetoric to distance themselves from Jones, saying the texts “prove he’s not a suitable public servant.”
For now, Virginia voters face a clear choice: support the experienced incumbent, Jason Miyares, or keep a contested Democrat in the field. Either way, the outcome will signal how Virginia’s electorate responds to a political scandal in an era of heightened scrutiny.
Source: New York Post
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