Despite President Trump’s recent bump to a 50 %–46 % approval rating, a new study from a conservative polling firm signals that Republicans are losing ground with independents ahead of the 2026 midterms. The poll, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates, found that while Trump holds a modestly positive public image, Democrats lead Republicans on the generic congressional ballot—45 % of respondents favor Democrats versus 44 % for Republicans.
John McLaughlin and Jim McLaughlin explained in a Newsmax feature that, should Republicans need roughly 60 million votes to regain a House majority, the current Trump‑supporting electorate could theoretically provide enough ballots. Still, the poll suggests that Harris‑aligned voters — totalling about 75 million — appear more energized than their Republican counterparts.
The study also highlights a facially distinct approval score for Trump. While he crowns a 50 %–46 % favorable rating on Truth Social, standard polling averages place his job‑disapproval at an 11.7‑point net, according to the latest RealClearPolitics compilation. Democrats enjoy a 4.8‑point advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, a trend confirmed in multiple aggregations.
Time is ticking for Republicans to shore up their House majority, where they are currently threadbare. The poll reports that only 38 % of voters feel the country is headed in the right direction; by contrast, 56 % believe it’s moving wrong. Economic sentiment is similarly bleak: just 49 % feel the economy is not in recession (down from 58 % in August), 77 % of likely voters report being hurt by inflation, and 41 % say they struggle to pay their bills.
Trump’s key bill of the second term, now known as the Working Families Tax Cut Act, has failed to gain widespread enthusiasm among likely voters. The poll shows that independents oppose the measure 50 %–35 %, with an overall 46 % support versus a 43 % opposition among the larger sample. Democrats hold a lead across several demographic buckets—42 % of independents and 50 % of women prefer Democrats, while Hispanic voters favor Democrats 48 % to 36 %.
Consensus betting markets have moved in the same direction, predicting a 73 % probability of Democrats taking control of both chambers.
Even amid these warnings, the poll still identified some positive points for GOP leadership. Notably, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D‑NY) has a favorable rating of 31 % compared to an unfavorable 44 %. Respondents also show strong support for capitalism, backing it 63 % to 17 % over socialism. A sizable 64 % also endorse Trump’s broad high‑level objective of putting America first.
The McLaughlin & Associates survey, covering 1,000 likely voters from November 17–24, carried a margin of error of ±3.1 %.
Stay informed on all the latest news, real-time breaking news updates, and follow all the important headlines in world News on Latest NewsX. Follow us on social media Facebook, Twitter(X), Gettr and subscribe our Youtube Channel.
